College basketball is similar to college football in that the "big name" teams seem to get the bulk of the public's play most of the time. Teams like Duke, Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina, Arizona and UCLA get the bettors' "Love" and the lines on those teams usually run 2 to 5 points more than they should really be. The value is simply not there.
There are simply so many basketball games, usually 70 to 85 on a basketball Saturday, that it's difficult for oddsmakers to make accurate numbers on every game. They make mistakes and those mistakes are usually on what we call "no-name" teams.
When conference play begins, it's important to see who these teams played earlier. Did they play cupcakes to bolster their records or did they play tough opponents to better prepare them for a tough conference season? As teams play each other on a home-and-home basis, look to see who has the edge at home and whether or not one team has an advantage. Does one team dominate the series or not? Revenge and rivalries play an important part in conference play. Watching the attitude of teams both in tight games and in blowouts toward conference rivals is important. Players and coaches have long memories with regard to who "stuck it to them" or who just ran out the clock in a blowout situation. No one likes to have the score run up needlessly against them. We watch these situations very carefully.
Before March Madness begins, we'll give you some factors to consider around tournament time. We've selected the winner 3 years in a row.